Turning Point Forecast
For
EURUSD Forex
Market
REVISED 1/16/04
Pivot Research
& Trading Co.
3203 Provence
Place
Thousand Oaks,
Ca. 91362
FAX
805-493-4349
PHONE
805-493-4221
This
forecast was made using our Near Impulse Theoryä and methodology documented
in Research Report No. 101 entitled Using
Gann Based Expanding Cycles to Forecast Turning Points in the DJIA.
During
2000 and 2001, I posted quarterly forecasts of turning points for the major
stock indexes, demonstrating over 80% accuracy in the results. With this
report, I will be presenting a quarterly forecast of an individual stock, index
or commodity to demonstrate the applicability of the methodology to any freely
traded market.
The
content of this report does not constitute investment advice and is to be used
with discretionary judgement by the trader. Guidelines for use of this
information are given below.
This
forecast was made before the beginning of the quarter and does not include
forecasts resulting from market structure after the quarter began. You can get
an update with most recent forecast dates by sending a request to
Jwhite43@adelphia.net.
The dates listed as potential turning point dates in this report are expected to forecast a short-term change in the structure of the market. Three different outcomes may occur on these dates.
(1) The market may reverse direction. Thus if the market is in a
noticeable up move, a high pivot and reversal to down movement can be
anticipated. Traders making investment decisions based on this information are
urged to apply some mechanism to confirm the reversal before entering or
exiting a trade. A confirmation that has proved effective is a close beyond the
opposite extreme of the pivot bar. Therefore, if we are in the time vicinity of
a forecast point and the market is going up, look for a close below the low of
the high pivot bar as a confirmation of the pivot.
(2) The market may move sideways or congest. Congestion regions in a market may be caused by a self-canceling interaction of upward and downward influences. Generally these moves are characterized by a series if time bars with a range near that of the last bar of the previous move. This may be a series of inside or outside bars but with narrow range of closes. These moves are difficult to trade and should be avoided. They can de expected only about 5 to 10 % of the time.
(3) The market may accelerate in the direction it is already moving. These acceleration type moves are rare and are characteristic of marking the end of a larger trend move. They also may exhibit a false breakout as if a reversal before continuing in the dominate direction. These false breakouts generally occur on low volume days and are an opportunity for market specialist to pick up inventory prior to the continuation of the move. Whipsaws are common and the trader should have a close stop policy to deal with these occurrences.
Forecast Dates for
EURUSD
The forecast dates for the First Quarter, 2004 are listed in Table I below. Dates marked in the table are potential reversals of the dominant trend of the period. If price is moving down into the forecast window, look for a reversal to up. If the price is moving up into the forecast window, look for a reversal to down.
|
Forecast Date |
High/Low Expectation |
Actual
pivot |
Result |
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1/8/04 |
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1/23-26/04 |
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1/28/04 |
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2/3/04 |
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2/17/04 |
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3/12/04 |
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3/17/04 |
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